DA
06-30-2009, 06:27 PM
The console war may extend for several years to come, and Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter thinks we'll see a shift in the leading consoles by the time it's over. Gamasutra gives word that a recent report from Pachter claims the current console cycle will last until at least 2013. He predicts that in the U.S. and European markets, the Wii will stay dominant throughout the years, claiming 49% of the market for 2009, while the Xbox 360 takes 29% and the PlayStation 3 claims 22%.
But by 2011, he says a shift might start to occur, with the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 finishing at 26% each (still behind the Wii at 48%). The strength of Blu-Ray is credited as the primary reason for the shift, and by 2015 he believes the PlayStation 3 might overtake the Xbox 360's global market share. This isn't to say Microsoft will be suffering, however; all three companies are expected to see more revenue even if they drop a few percentage points in the market.
In Japan the Wii is expected to be even more of a reigning king with 65% of the market, and he expects a Wii HD to come by 2010 for under $200. Finally, he suggests that storage space will grow exponentially to a full terabyte within the next ten years, but digital distribution will still only claim 50% of software sales at most.
As always, these are all predictions based on current trends and anything could change. The report doesn't address how new developments like Natal or Sony's motion device could shift the balance, so we'll just have to wait and see if those factors have a heavy impact.
But by 2011, he says a shift might start to occur, with the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 finishing at 26% each (still behind the Wii at 48%). The strength of Blu-Ray is credited as the primary reason for the shift, and by 2015 he believes the PlayStation 3 might overtake the Xbox 360's global market share. This isn't to say Microsoft will be suffering, however; all three companies are expected to see more revenue even if they drop a few percentage points in the market.
In Japan the Wii is expected to be even more of a reigning king with 65% of the market, and he expects a Wii HD to come by 2010 for under $200. Finally, he suggests that storage space will grow exponentially to a full terabyte within the next ten years, but digital distribution will still only claim 50% of software sales at most.
As always, these are all predictions based on current trends and anything could change. The report doesn't address how new developments like Natal or Sony's motion device could shift the balance, so we'll just have to wait and see if those factors have a heavy impact.