John
01-13-2011, 07:53 AM
The Labour party is expected to score a victory in the government's first election test Thursday, dealing another blow to the under-fire Liberal Democrat partners.
The Lib Dems have had a rough ride since joining the larger Conservatives to form the first coalition government since World War Two, facing criticism for signing up to policies they had vehemently opposed before last May's election.
While defeat in a by-election for a vacant parliament seat in northern England will be far from fatal for Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, it will encourage his critics and put flesh on the bones of polls that show his party's popularity has collapsed.
The election was called after a Labour MP lost his seat after he was found guilty of smearing his Lib Dem rival in last year's vote. Labour beat the Lib Dems by a tiny margin last year but a backlash against the coalition is likely to give Labour a more comfortable win this time.
"All by-elections are slightly odd, but there are certain established patterns," said Justin Fisher, a professor of political science at Brunel University.
"They are an opportunity for people to express their disapproval of government, but that tends to happen later on in the parliament. If they are getting a kicking already, it's not a particularly good sign."
Financial markets are on high alert for any signs of instability within the coalition government, given that a stable administration is seen as crucial to implementing an ambitious austerity plan to effectively eliminate a record budget deficit by 2015.
"You would expect this early on for there still to be something of a honeymoon period," Fisher said. "If the Lib Dems do particularly badly, it will inevitably set alarm bells ringing."
BEST OF ENEMIES
The election in the constituency of Oldham East and Saddleworth also pits the two governing parties against each other.
There have been suggestions that Prime Minister David Cameron wants his Lib Dem allies to perform strongly to help underpin the coalition.
However, Labour hopeful Debbie Abrahams has emerged as favourite -- an outcome likely to be interpreted as proof of the Lib Dem's failing popularity, a backlash against the fledgling coalition and a boost for new Labour leader Ed Miliband.
Two opinion polls Sunday predicted a crushing defeat for the Lib Dems, placing the party 17 points behind Labour.
While the larger Conservatives have fared better than the Lib Dems in nationwide opinion polls since May, conditions are far from ideal for the coalition.
There has been uproar over a struggle to restrain banks from paying out big bonuses and the coalition's efforts to tackle a record budget deficit also start to bite in earnest this year.
Households are having to balance poor wage rises against stubbornly high inflation and rising taxes, and the public sector faces a two-year pay freeze alongside the prospect of more than 300,000 state-funded job losses.
"By-elections are generally better for oppositions that exploit voter-disenchantment with the government of the day than governing parties struggling to overcome the disappointments of their supporters," said Peter Kellner, president of the YouGov polling group.
Source - Yahoo.
The Lib Dems have had a rough ride since joining the larger Conservatives to form the first coalition government since World War Two, facing criticism for signing up to policies they had vehemently opposed before last May's election.
While defeat in a by-election for a vacant parliament seat in northern England will be far from fatal for Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg, it will encourage his critics and put flesh on the bones of polls that show his party's popularity has collapsed.
The election was called after a Labour MP lost his seat after he was found guilty of smearing his Lib Dem rival in last year's vote. Labour beat the Lib Dems by a tiny margin last year but a backlash against the coalition is likely to give Labour a more comfortable win this time.
"All by-elections are slightly odd, but there are certain established patterns," said Justin Fisher, a professor of political science at Brunel University.
"They are an opportunity for people to express their disapproval of government, but that tends to happen later on in the parliament. If they are getting a kicking already, it's not a particularly good sign."
Financial markets are on high alert for any signs of instability within the coalition government, given that a stable administration is seen as crucial to implementing an ambitious austerity plan to effectively eliminate a record budget deficit by 2015.
"You would expect this early on for there still to be something of a honeymoon period," Fisher said. "If the Lib Dems do particularly badly, it will inevitably set alarm bells ringing."
BEST OF ENEMIES
The election in the constituency of Oldham East and Saddleworth also pits the two governing parties against each other.
There have been suggestions that Prime Minister David Cameron wants his Lib Dem allies to perform strongly to help underpin the coalition.
However, Labour hopeful Debbie Abrahams has emerged as favourite -- an outcome likely to be interpreted as proof of the Lib Dem's failing popularity, a backlash against the fledgling coalition and a boost for new Labour leader Ed Miliband.
Two opinion polls Sunday predicted a crushing defeat for the Lib Dems, placing the party 17 points behind Labour.
While the larger Conservatives have fared better than the Lib Dems in nationwide opinion polls since May, conditions are far from ideal for the coalition.
There has been uproar over a struggle to restrain banks from paying out big bonuses and the coalition's efforts to tackle a record budget deficit also start to bite in earnest this year.
Households are having to balance poor wage rises against stubbornly high inflation and rising taxes, and the public sector faces a two-year pay freeze alongside the prospect of more than 300,000 state-funded job losses.
"By-elections are generally better for oppositions that exploit voter-disenchantment with the government of the day than governing parties struggling to overcome the disappointments of their supporters," said Peter Kellner, president of the YouGov polling group.
Source - Yahoo.