Travicity
01-15-2011, 01:40 PM
FRIDAY PM: Sources tell me this was a rough Friday at the box office for two new major studio tentpoles opening on a long Martin Luther King 4-day holiday that overall is looking -25% down from last year's:
1. The Green Hornet 3D (Sony Pictures) NEW [3,584 Theaters]
Friday $10.5M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend $30M, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $35M
It seemed a miracle that this much bad-buzzed big movie that's a modern adaptation of the old radio series about the legendary action duo -- Britt Reid (with the unorthodox casting of Seth Rogen) and his resourceful Kato (with Taiwanese pop singer Jay Chou) not to mention their coolly equipped The Black Beauty -- was tracking very well for weeks now. But tonight rival studios are emailing me that The Green Hornet is surprisingly underperforming. Sony execs disagree. They say things could have been worse at the box office tonight but the West Coast is "pushing it way up" with late shows. "Everybody agrees we will be up Saturday and should benefit all weekend long from a young audience," a Sony exec reassures. "Whatever it is, Friday figures to be 3.5 times or more for the 4 days -- so high $30sM at least." Friday's post midnight screenings were light -- $550K on 700 plays -- but that's because Sony didn't push them. Meanwhile, The Green Hornet earned a "B+" CinemaScore overall but an "A-" among audience members under age 25. Let's agree not to judge this movie's numbers prematurely. I'd say it's only so-so right now given the higher 3D ticket prices and grosses on the low side of Hollywood's expectations. ("Once again, tracking overestimated this genre," a rival studio exec messages me in a veiled reference to the lackluster performance of Kick-Ass. But that pic was R-rated and The Green Hornet is PG-13.) Then again, we have to take into account the $120M-$150M production cost: blame reshoots and the release delay from December 22nd to January 14th so Sony could give the flick a 3D makeover. All week, rival studios were telling me they thought Sony missed a Xmas opportunity to clean up at the box office. But we don't all have 20/20 hindsight.
As for the marketing plan, "we really worked hard to create a summer film launch in January," a Sony exec told me. Personally, I hated those cheezy Carls Jr promos but they helped create awareness. Pic had a strong presence with ads during key NFL and College Bowl games, plus the NBA. And a high impact outdoor campaign with a glow-in-the-dark logo effect plus "real” headlights on the image of The Black Beauty which toured in 20 markets and starred on Myth Busters and in U.S. auto shows. Rogen (who lost a lot of weight to play the role) and Chou each did an enormous amount of PR/appearances to support the film.
2. The Dilemma (Universal Pictures) NEW [2,941 Theaters] B
Friday $5.5M
Estimated 3-day Weekend $16.5M, Estimated 4-day Holiday $19.5M
Some studios think tonight's take could be $6M with a shot at $20M for the long holiday weekend. But that's still shockingly soft for a Ron Howard-directed movie starring proven box office strongmen Vince Vaughn and Kevin James whose last four comedies were mega-openers (Four Christmases - $31M, Couples Retreat - $34M, Paul Blart: Mall Cop - $31M, and Grown-Ups - $40M). "Somehow putting them together gets you half that," one studio exec emails me tonight. I readily admit to being relieved to see Vince cool off at the box office because he's such a pain-in-the-ass to almost everybody in the filmmaking process. On the other hand, The Dilemma was Universal Pictures chief Adam Fogelson's first release of his greenlit movie slate. But, seriously, what Big Studio mogul would not have greenlight that talent combination? (Although I think Ron Howard should have deleted that gratuitous gay slur scene which was cut out of the trailer after protests that it was offensive.) The pic's CinemaScore was a "B". Given that this film's production budget was $70 million, Dilemma has a long way to go but Universal tonight emailed me that it's "performing at or slightly above tracking" which was forecasting only high teens. That's soft for the pic's respective cost and a disaster for the reputations of Howard, Vaughn, and James. The disconnect, insiders tell me, was the storyline. "The subject of infidelity is a really challenging one," one exec explained to me even though the studio's own pre-release publicity points out that Vince has consistently proven to be a popular draw in comedies that take a look at the issues of relationships. "At a tie when people are looking for wish fulfillment, this may be too painful." Other insiders are complaining to me that "this pic was meant to be a comedy with some drama, and it turned out to be a drama with some comedy". Universal is also distributing the film internationally and it opens day and date in Australia, New Zealand, and Romania. In April, Universal begins rolling it out to the rest of the world.
3. True Grit (Paramount) Week 4 [3,459 Theaters]
Friday $3.2M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend $11M, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $13M, Estimated Cume $128.5M
Wow, the Coen Brothers' Western just keeps going and going as it rides to awards wins.
4. The King's Speech (The Weinstein Co) Week 8 [1,543 Theaters]
Friday $2.5M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend $9M, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $11M, Estimated Cume $46.5M
This Oscar-touted film doubled its screen count this weekend.
5. Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Week 7 [2,328 Theaters]
Friday $2.2M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend $6.5M, Estimated 4-day Holiday $9M, Estimated Cume $73.8M
This is a big expansion for this awards-praised pic, adding 750 locations.
6. Little Fockers (Universal) Week 4 [3,394 Theaters]
Friday $2.1M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $8.5M, Estimated Cume $135.5M
7. The Fighter (Relativity/Paramount) Week 4 [2,414 Theaters]
Friday $1.5M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $6M, Estimated Cume $67M
8. Season Of The Witch (Relativity) Week 2 [2,827 Theaters]
Friday $1.4M (-64%)
Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $5.5M, Estimated Cume $19M
9. Tron: Legacy 3D (Disney) Week 5 [2,439 Theaters]
Friday $1.2M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $5.5M, Estimated Cume $156.7M
10. Yogi Bear 3D (Warner Bros) Week 5 [2,702 Theaters]
Friday $1.1M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $7M, Estimated Cume $83.7M
DL
1. The Green Hornet 3D (Sony Pictures) NEW [3,584 Theaters]
Friday $10.5M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend $30M, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $35M
It seemed a miracle that this much bad-buzzed big movie that's a modern adaptation of the old radio series about the legendary action duo -- Britt Reid (with the unorthodox casting of Seth Rogen) and his resourceful Kato (with Taiwanese pop singer Jay Chou) not to mention their coolly equipped The Black Beauty -- was tracking very well for weeks now. But tonight rival studios are emailing me that The Green Hornet is surprisingly underperforming. Sony execs disagree. They say things could have been worse at the box office tonight but the West Coast is "pushing it way up" with late shows. "Everybody agrees we will be up Saturday and should benefit all weekend long from a young audience," a Sony exec reassures. "Whatever it is, Friday figures to be 3.5 times or more for the 4 days -- so high $30sM at least." Friday's post midnight screenings were light -- $550K on 700 plays -- but that's because Sony didn't push them. Meanwhile, The Green Hornet earned a "B+" CinemaScore overall but an "A-" among audience members under age 25. Let's agree not to judge this movie's numbers prematurely. I'd say it's only so-so right now given the higher 3D ticket prices and grosses on the low side of Hollywood's expectations. ("Once again, tracking overestimated this genre," a rival studio exec messages me in a veiled reference to the lackluster performance of Kick-Ass. But that pic was R-rated and The Green Hornet is PG-13.) Then again, we have to take into account the $120M-$150M production cost: blame reshoots and the release delay from December 22nd to January 14th so Sony could give the flick a 3D makeover. All week, rival studios were telling me they thought Sony missed a Xmas opportunity to clean up at the box office. But we don't all have 20/20 hindsight.
As for the marketing plan, "we really worked hard to create a summer film launch in January," a Sony exec told me. Personally, I hated those cheezy Carls Jr promos but they helped create awareness. Pic had a strong presence with ads during key NFL and College Bowl games, plus the NBA. And a high impact outdoor campaign with a glow-in-the-dark logo effect plus "real” headlights on the image of The Black Beauty which toured in 20 markets and starred on Myth Busters and in U.S. auto shows. Rogen (who lost a lot of weight to play the role) and Chou each did an enormous amount of PR/appearances to support the film.
2. The Dilemma (Universal Pictures) NEW [2,941 Theaters] B
Friday $5.5M
Estimated 3-day Weekend $16.5M, Estimated 4-day Holiday $19.5M
Some studios think tonight's take could be $6M with a shot at $20M for the long holiday weekend. But that's still shockingly soft for a Ron Howard-directed movie starring proven box office strongmen Vince Vaughn and Kevin James whose last four comedies were mega-openers (Four Christmases - $31M, Couples Retreat - $34M, Paul Blart: Mall Cop - $31M, and Grown-Ups - $40M). "Somehow putting them together gets you half that," one studio exec emails me tonight. I readily admit to being relieved to see Vince cool off at the box office because he's such a pain-in-the-ass to almost everybody in the filmmaking process. On the other hand, The Dilemma was Universal Pictures chief Adam Fogelson's first release of his greenlit movie slate. But, seriously, what Big Studio mogul would not have greenlight that talent combination? (Although I think Ron Howard should have deleted that gratuitous gay slur scene which was cut out of the trailer after protests that it was offensive.) The pic's CinemaScore was a "B". Given that this film's production budget was $70 million, Dilemma has a long way to go but Universal tonight emailed me that it's "performing at or slightly above tracking" which was forecasting only high teens. That's soft for the pic's respective cost and a disaster for the reputations of Howard, Vaughn, and James. The disconnect, insiders tell me, was the storyline. "The subject of infidelity is a really challenging one," one exec explained to me even though the studio's own pre-release publicity points out that Vince has consistently proven to be a popular draw in comedies that take a look at the issues of relationships. "At a tie when people are looking for wish fulfillment, this may be too painful." Other insiders are complaining to me that "this pic was meant to be a comedy with some drama, and it turned out to be a drama with some comedy". Universal is also distributing the film internationally and it opens day and date in Australia, New Zealand, and Romania. In April, Universal begins rolling it out to the rest of the world.
3. True Grit (Paramount) Week 4 [3,459 Theaters]
Friday $3.2M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend $11M, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $13M, Estimated Cume $128.5M
Wow, the Coen Brothers' Western just keeps going and going as it rides to awards wins.
4. The King's Speech (The Weinstein Co) Week 8 [1,543 Theaters]
Friday $2.5M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend $9M, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $11M, Estimated Cume $46.5M
This Oscar-touted film doubled its screen count this weekend.
5. Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Week 7 [2,328 Theaters]
Friday $2.2M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend $6.5M, Estimated 4-day Holiday $9M, Estimated Cume $73.8M
This is a big expansion for this awards-praised pic, adding 750 locations.
6. Little Fockers (Universal) Week 4 [3,394 Theaters]
Friday $2.1M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $8.5M, Estimated Cume $135.5M
7. The Fighter (Relativity/Paramount) Week 4 [2,414 Theaters]
Friday $1.5M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $6M, Estimated Cume $67M
8. Season Of The Witch (Relativity) Week 2 [2,827 Theaters]
Friday $1.4M (-64%)
Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $5.5M, Estimated Cume $19M
9. Tron: Legacy 3D (Disney) Week 5 [2,439 Theaters]
Friday $1.2M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $5.5M, Estimated Cume $156.7M
10. Yogi Bear 3D (Warner Bros) Week 5 [2,702 Theaters]
Friday $1.1M
Estimated 3-Day Weekend, Estimated 4-Day Holiday $7M, Estimated Cume $83.7M
DL