Kemo
11-08-2023, 07:04 PM
https://i.imgur.com/iAe1sfx.jpg
Thurston is one of the top journalists covering the pro wrestling industry. He's regularly asking the tough questions at press scrums after World Wrestling Entertainment and All Elite Wrestling PPVs and PLEs.
TKO stock was valued at around $81 last week.
As of Tuesday, the stock was trading at $85 a share following TKO's first quarterly earnings report and the announcement of a new TV deal for NXT.
NXT will begin airing on The CW in the fall of 2024 The deal is for five years. Thurston, in his own reports on Twitter, said, the deal was 70-percent higher than the show's current deal with USA Network.
Thurston said Sports Business Journal reported NXT made $30-$50 million per year with USA, while Deadline reported it was around $15 million, but the expected increase would more than double that once the show begins on CW.
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Endeavor has been less than satisfied with the performance of TKO since it first began trading. The stock was valued at $100 when it began trading and has fallen since.
"Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro ... have alluded to the notion in interviews that the market doesn't value Endeavor stock properly."
"They figure with UFC as part of Endeavor, investors weren't going to put money into a combat sport. That contributed to Endeavor merging with WWE. Now, afterward, the stock price hasn't improved."
Smackdown brought in less money than expected when TKO made its deal with USA Network last month. The five-year deal was estimated to be around $1.4 billion when it was announced recently. Thurston said Nick Khan had said publicly Smackdown could get 1.5 times in its next deal than its current deal with FOX, which was around around $1 billion for five years.
Endeavor is making money on fees related to TKO stock. This was something Lavie Margolin shared when I asked him about the stock and Thurston confirmed. So Endeavor has a lot of motive to have TKO trading a lot and trading for a lot of money.
Silver Lake, which owns 71 percent of Endeavor, has said its taking the company private. This was in a press release last week.
The NBA remains biggest wild card in Raw, AEW TV deals
The National Basketball Association's TV deals with ESPN and Warner Discovery expire after the 2024-2025 season. The deals were 10 years, $24 billion when signed in 2014.
Whatever deals AEW gets for Dynamite, Rampage and Collision; and WWE receives for Raw, will be impacted by what the NBA gets in its TV deal.
The timing doesn't favor either wrestling company as the NBA deals expire a year after WBD's deal is up with AEW and Raw is up with USA Network.
Also factoring is the expected end of the content war among major media companies. Thurston said the entire TV industry had its eyes on Netflix as to how far it could push streaming and massive purchases for content. That came to an end once Netflix plateaued.
"The timing isn't great for these deals to be up. If they were up two years earlier it would have been much better for AEW and WWE. Nobody knew the ceiling until April 2022 when worldwide subscribers plateaued.
"Netflix was the symbol for what was possible with streaming. Nobody knew the ceiling. The possibility of how many subs you could get. You could be optimistic and think you could get 100 million, and that was the ceiling.
"It's just the number of TVs out there is about 120 million. Netflix tapped out at 60 some, which is half. The consumer has a lot of flexibility. They can cancel one and sign for another just to watch one other show.
"The flexibility relative to the cable subscription is so great, the cable companies poor relationships with their. customers, it made it hard to cancel at the time, you were required to have hardware in your home ... There was an opportunity and Netflix capitalized on it. It did a great job and now we have this fragmented distribution."
Is AEW profitable?
Outside its first couple years, AEW owner and president Tony Khan has said little about whether AEW has been profitable. The company has spent heavily its first year to get started, but was rewarded with a new cable deal within months of Dynamite's debut on TNT.
Then followed Rampage on Friday nights and Collision on Saturdays. It's estimated AEW gets somewhere around $50 million to $70 million a year in TV rights fees. Forbes valued the company at around $1 billion earlier this year, which was the number many had in mind for an extension with Warner Discovery.
That extension hasn't happened yet. Sources have said Khan and Warner Discovery haven't come to an agreement on streaming AEW's content library, which now includes years of Ring of Honor content featuring early matches of many of the top names in AEW and WWE.
Thurston said he doesn't seen Khan pulling AEW away from Warner Discovery. Khan is very tuned into the history of the pro wrestling business and he knows the connection TBS and TNT have to wrestling.
"I think Tony is incredibly committed to WBD. He's insanely loyal. I asked him recently if FOX was now a possibility for AEW with Smackdown leaving. He would only talk about Warner Discovery and how me he loves being partners there.
"I'm confident they aren't profitable now. They need to make $200 million a year in media rights to get to profitability. They'll get some increase, they could get triple what they're getting now, it's not unreasonable. But he's going to continue to run the company and do what he's doing whether it's profitable or not."
"If I'm Warner Discovery, I'm waiting to see where the NBA rights are going to land. Maybe that influences how I schedule AEW. As for why they aren't streaming already, it doesn't make sense to me. At least have next day rights on MAX. Maybe they're waiting until Collision can deliver ratings. Maybe it will turn into Rampage where it falls off in interest after a while.
"They go against a lot of sports competition the rest of the year. What can they deliver when they aren't up against college football or the NFL or the NBA? And there's the NBA deal, which is a hang up as well. NBA exclusive negotiating doesn't end start until the season is over with - that could be June or July. So if they have to wait until these deals expire."
Thurston said Khan had "all but confirmed" that Warner Discover did own a portion of AEW on one of their recent conference calls.
After speaking with Thurston, I contacted a couple AEW sources about profitability in the company. Some thought the company needed a TV deal of around half a billion in total to get the annual revenue they need, which is the number most in AEW have talked about as far as a TV deal.
Others said the company has a lot of room to move as far as cutting costs go, if it comes to that. One source said they hoped it wouldn't come to that, but said the roster is massive and paid well, and has more wrestlers than they need, though Khan has shown no interest in cutting talent on a mass scale. There's Ring of Honor, which is airing weekly on Honor Club without a TV deal, which could potentially end up on a WBD network, or could be slashed if need be.
Another source said there were many areas they could cut costs in the company and get close profitability. They mentioned travel, and that the number of AEW wrestlers and staff flying first class is much higher than WWE, which is usually only a handful.
Will WWE Raw leave USA Network?
Thurston said he felt it was more of a possibility a few weeks ago, but said last week he wasn't confident either way if Raw was moving away from USA.
"The talk is FX, which is owned by Disney. They could be a buyer for Raw. It's certainly not going to fit on ESPN, the mothership. I don't think they want a worked sport on ESPN2 either, ESPN Plus is a possibility especially with the network and what they were able to give to Peacock. Maybe something could be built together there with UFC when those rights are up."
CW acquiring NXT seems to leave more room for Raw to stay on USA.
Thurston is one of the top journalists covering the pro wrestling industry. He's regularly asking the tough questions at press scrums after World Wrestling Entertainment and All Elite Wrestling PPVs and PLEs.
TKO stock was valued at around $81 last week.
As of Tuesday, the stock was trading at $85 a share following TKO's first quarterly earnings report and the announcement of a new TV deal for NXT.
NXT will begin airing on The CW in the fall of 2024 The deal is for five years. Thurston, in his own reports on Twitter, said, the deal was 70-percent higher than the show's current deal with USA Network.
Thurston said Sports Business Journal reported NXT made $30-$50 million per year with USA, while Deadline reported it was around $15 million, but the expected increase would more than double that once the show begins on CW.
1722016177449292163
Endeavor has been less than satisfied with the performance of TKO since it first began trading. The stock was valued at $100 when it began trading and has fallen since.
"Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro ... have alluded to the notion in interviews that the market doesn't value Endeavor stock properly."
"They figure with UFC as part of Endeavor, investors weren't going to put money into a combat sport. That contributed to Endeavor merging with WWE. Now, afterward, the stock price hasn't improved."
Smackdown brought in less money than expected when TKO made its deal with USA Network last month. The five-year deal was estimated to be around $1.4 billion when it was announced recently. Thurston said Nick Khan had said publicly Smackdown could get 1.5 times in its next deal than its current deal with FOX, which was around around $1 billion for five years.
Endeavor is making money on fees related to TKO stock. This was something Lavie Margolin shared when I asked him about the stock and Thurston confirmed. So Endeavor has a lot of motive to have TKO trading a lot and trading for a lot of money.
Silver Lake, which owns 71 percent of Endeavor, has said its taking the company private. This was in a press release last week.
The NBA remains biggest wild card in Raw, AEW TV deals
The National Basketball Association's TV deals with ESPN and Warner Discovery expire after the 2024-2025 season. The deals were 10 years, $24 billion when signed in 2014.
Whatever deals AEW gets for Dynamite, Rampage and Collision; and WWE receives for Raw, will be impacted by what the NBA gets in its TV deal.
The timing doesn't favor either wrestling company as the NBA deals expire a year after WBD's deal is up with AEW and Raw is up with USA Network.
Also factoring is the expected end of the content war among major media companies. Thurston said the entire TV industry had its eyes on Netflix as to how far it could push streaming and massive purchases for content. That came to an end once Netflix plateaued.
"The timing isn't great for these deals to be up. If they were up two years earlier it would have been much better for AEW and WWE. Nobody knew the ceiling until April 2022 when worldwide subscribers plateaued.
"Netflix was the symbol for what was possible with streaming. Nobody knew the ceiling. The possibility of how many subs you could get. You could be optimistic and think you could get 100 million, and that was the ceiling.
"It's just the number of TVs out there is about 120 million. Netflix tapped out at 60 some, which is half. The consumer has a lot of flexibility. They can cancel one and sign for another just to watch one other show.
"The flexibility relative to the cable subscription is so great, the cable companies poor relationships with their. customers, it made it hard to cancel at the time, you were required to have hardware in your home ... There was an opportunity and Netflix capitalized on it. It did a great job and now we have this fragmented distribution."
Is AEW profitable?
Outside its first couple years, AEW owner and president Tony Khan has said little about whether AEW has been profitable. The company has spent heavily its first year to get started, but was rewarded with a new cable deal within months of Dynamite's debut on TNT.
Then followed Rampage on Friday nights and Collision on Saturdays. It's estimated AEW gets somewhere around $50 million to $70 million a year in TV rights fees. Forbes valued the company at around $1 billion earlier this year, which was the number many had in mind for an extension with Warner Discovery.
That extension hasn't happened yet. Sources have said Khan and Warner Discovery haven't come to an agreement on streaming AEW's content library, which now includes years of Ring of Honor content featuring early matches of many of the top names in AEW and WWE.
Thurston said he doesn't seen Khan pulling AEW away from Warner Discovery. Khan is very tuned into the history of the pro wrestling business and he knows the connection TBS and TNT have to wrestling.
"I think Tony is incredibly committed to WBD. He's insanely loyal. I asked him recently if FOX was now a possibility for AEW with Smackdown leaving. He would only talk about Warner Discovery and how me he loves being partners there.
"I'm confident they aren't profitable now. They need to make $200 million a year in media rights to get to profitability. They'll get some increase, they could get triple what they're getting now, it's not unreasonable. But he's going to continue to run the company and do what he's doing whether it's profitable or not."
"If I'm Warner Discovery, I'm waiting to see where the NBA rights are going to land. Maybe that influences how I schedule AEW. As for why they aren't streaming already, it doesn't make sense to me. At least have next day rights on MAX. Maybe they're waiting until Collision can deliver ratings. Maybe it will turn into Rampage where it falls off in interest after a while.
"They go against a lot of sports competition the rest of the year. What can they deliver when they aren't up against college football or the NFL or the NBA? And there's the NBA deal, which is a hang up as well. NBA exclusive negotiating doesn't end start until the season is over with - that could be June or July. So if they have to wait until these deals expire."
Thurston said Khan had "all but confirmed" that Warner Discover did own a portion of AEW on one of their recent conference calls.
After speaking with Thurston, I contacted a couple AEW sources about profitability in the company. Some thought the company needed a TV deal of around half a billion in total to get the annual revenue they need, which is the number most in AEW have talked about as far as a TV deal.
Others said the company has a lot of room to move as far as cutting costs go, if it comes to that. One source said they hoped it wouldn't come to that, but said the roster is massive and paid well, and has more wrestlers than they need, though Khan has shown no interest in cutting talent on a mass scale. There's Ring of Honor, which is airing weekly on Honor Club without a TV deal, which could potentially end up on a WBD network, or could be slashed if need be.
Another source said there were many areas they could cut costs in the company and get close profitability. They mentioned travel, and that the number of AEW wrestlers and staff flying first class is much higher than WWE, which is usually only a handful.
Will WWE Raw leave USA Network?
Thurston said he felt it was more of a possibility a few weeks ago, but said last week he wasn't confident either way if Raw was moving away from USA.
"The talk is FX, which is owned by Disney. They could be a buyer for Raw. It's certainly not going to fit on ESPN, the mothership. I don't think they want a worked sport on ESPN2 either, ESPN Plus is a possibility especially with the network and what they were able to give to Peacock. Maybe something could be built together there with UFC when those rights are up."
CW acquiring NXT seems to leave more room for Raw to stay on USA.