Stunning poll reveals just how culturally different America’s Democrats and Republicans are
Ever get the sense that US politics involves two sides with completely incompatible worldviews shouting past each other, instead of seeking common ground?
Yeah, well. The data backs up that impression.
Pew Research has released new polling that breaks down “the political values of Harris and Trump supporters”, based on responses from more than 4500 registered voters. A large sample size, as these things go.
The respondents all completed two surveys, one revealing how they intended to vote in November, and another seeking their views on topics like “immigration, race and ethnicity, government, family, gender identity, religious values and foreign policy”.
You know, all the subjects with the potential to start arguments at the proverbial family Thanksgiving dinner.
Pew notes that the state of the presidential race has “changed dramatically” since President Joe Biden withdrew five weeks ago, leading the Democrats to coalesce around Kamala Harris.
“What has not changed is the vast differences in political values between voters who support Harris and those who back Republican nominee Donald Trump,” Pew says.
Emphasis on vast. You would expect some stark differences in views between those on the left and right in pretty much any democracy, but the sheer scale of them here is staggering. And it goes some way towards explaining why America’s Democrats and Republicans don’t just disagree – they seem to barely even understand each other.
Let’s run through a few of the key issues surveyed by Pew. It put a series of propositions to respondents, and measured how many Harris and Trump supporters agreed.
“Gun ownership does more to increase safety by allowing law-abiding citizens to protect themselves.”
Harris supporters: 18 per cent
Trump supporters: 89 per cent
All voters: 54 per cent
You will often hear Democrats say that an overwhelming majority of Americans want “common sense” gun restrictions, including Republicans. That is true, to a point. Universal background checks, for example, often draw support levels above 80 per cent in polling.
But that masks an otherwise obvious cultural difference. By most estimates there are many more guns in circulation, in the United States, than people. One side sees this as a problem that makes everyone less safe. The other feels the problem is more limited; that guns too frequently fall into the wrong hands, but in the right ones make society safer.
There is a reason you so often see political candidates in red states, and even swing states, brandishing guns in their TV ads. It gives them cultural credibility.
And as long as a majority of Americans still believe gun ownership makes them safer, Congress will be limited to tinkering around the edges of gun laws. Something along the lines of John Howard’s gun buyback scheme in Australia is just not politically feasible.
“The legacy of slavery affects the position of black people in American society today a great deal or a fair amount.”
Harris voters: 80 per cent
Trump voters: 24 per cent
All voters: 53 per cent
Slavery was abolished in the United States in 1865, in the wake of the Civil War, which left more than 600,000 people dead. However, segregation and restrictions on black voting rights continued into the 1960s.
There are black Americans still alive today, then, who were subjected to monstrous institutionalised racism in their youth.
The two sides of US politics disagree, sometimes vehemently, on the extent to which that historical discrimination still echoes now.
“America’s openness to people from all over the world is essential to who we are as a nation.”
Harris voters: 88 per cent
Trump voters: 34 per cent
All voters: 61 per cent
Immigration is among Mr Trump’s favourite subjects, particularly when it comes to migrants illegally crossing America’s southern border with Mexico.
His promise to implement an unprecedented mass deportation of undocumented migrants living in the US is a centrepiece of most campaign rallies.
“As soon as I take the oath of office, we will begin the largest deportation operation in the history of our country,” he said recently.
It’s unclear how that operation will work, given there are, by most estimates, well over 11 million such people currently living in the US.
“Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth.”
Harris voters: 60 per cent
Trump voters: 7 per cent
All voters: 34 per cent
The transgender culture war has been no less potent in the US than it is here.
At state level, some governments have sought to impose restrictions on trans women using female bathrooms, on the discussion of gender identity at school, on teachers revealing their sexuality, and on other adjacent issues.
The Republicans seem to be on solid ground here, politically, given only a third or so of the country seems to agree with Pew’s proposition.
Even the 60 per cent support we can see among Harris voters is pretty low, given how one-sided the issue is among Republicans.
“The criminal justice system is generally not tough enough on criminals.”
Harris voters: 39 per cent
Trump voters: 83 per cent
All voters: 61 per cent
You won’t find a democracy on Earth in which criminal justice is not a frequent election issue. That’s because people, as a general rule, are anti-criminal. Go figure! At the risk of sounding somewhat cynical, it’s an easy subject with which to pander.
Two things to consider here.
One: the impression among most Democrats that the American justice system is harsher on minorities than on white people, as we saw expressed in the Black Lives Matter protests of 2020, in the wake of George Floyd’s murder.
Two: the Republicans who overwhelmingly support Mr Trump are quite comfortable with his status as a convicted criminal. Clearly they believe the various cases against him have been motivated by politics, rather than a thirst to uphold the law.
“Society is better off if people make marriage, and having children, a priority.”
Harris voters: 17 per cent
Trump voters: 60 per cent
All voters: 39 per cent
Look, most people, in our personal lives, are extremely fixated on finding someone with whom to partner up and, in most cases, have kids. The dozens of reality TV dating shows in your streaming algorithms would not exist, otherwise.
How important is all that for wider society, though? There, we find a partisan divide.
Elon Musk talks incessantly about the “birth rate” in Western society, and how its downward trend is a threat to civilisation. Or something like that.
And controversy has swirled around Mr Trump’s choice for vice president, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, whose past comments having a go at, for example, “childless cat ladies” have caused a political problem or two for the Republican ticket.
“Our conservative values are that parents and families should determine what children learn and what values they are brought up with,” Mr Vance said in the most recent leaked recording of his views, which emerged today.
“So many of the leaders of the left – I hate to be so personal about this – they’re people without kids, trying to brainwash the minds of our children. That really disorients me and it really disturbs me.”
“Religion should be kept separate from government policies.”
Harris voters: 87 per cent
Trump voters: 55 per cent
All voters: 71 per cent
Bit of a hazy one here. The United States’ constitution establishes freedom of religion: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof.”
That hints at a secular society where no one religion is elevated above the others.
However Christianity has long been bound up in some parts of government. The country’s Pledge of Allegiance speaks of “one nation, under God”. There is yet to be a single president who was not, at least ostensibly, Christian. Occasionally a state governor will seek to have a plaque with the Ten Commandments erected in government buildings. That sort of thing.
“The gains women have made in society have come at the expense of men.”
Harris voters: 11 per cent
Trump voters: 27 per cent
All voters: 17 per cent
Here, at last, we have something approaching consensus. Not even a third of Mr Trump’s voters agree that women’s increasing rights have simultaneously pushed down men.
This might be news to the more online sections of the alt-right, whose anti-woman rhetoric has always felt well outside the mainstream.
