Trump pulls ahead of Kamala Harris in sign VP’s campaign is fizzling
Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris for the first time in weeks, in a sign the Democrat’s campaign momentum is fizzling out.
Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris for the first time in weeks in a key national poll, in a sign the Democratic presidential candidate’s campaign momentum is fizzling out just before their crucial debate.
The closely watched New York Times/Siena College poll released on Sunday put the former President just ahead of Ms Harris on 48 per cent to 47 per cent among likely voters nationally, within the margin of error.
The result is largely unchanged from the same time the survey was taken in late July, just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, and comes as other polls also begin to show the Vice President’s honeymoon bounce beginning to fade.
With their only scheduled debate looming on Tuesday, Mr Trump’s razor-thin lead suggests the former President’s support “remains remarkably resilient”, the Times noted.
“To me, the result is a bit surprising,” wrote New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn.
“It’s the first lead for Mr Trump in a major nonpartisan national survey in about a month. As a result, it’s worth being at least a little cautious about these findings, as there isn’t much confirmation from other polls.
“That said, it wouldn’t be hard to explain if Vice President Harris’s support really has faded a bit in recent weeks. After all, she was benefiting from an ideal news environment — an uninterrupted month of glowing coverage from President Biden’s departure from the race in July to the Democratic convention in August.
“It’s possible she was riding a political sugar high … if so, it would make sense if she came off those highs in the two uneventful weeks since the convention.”
Overall, 46 per cent of likely voters had a favourable view of Mr Trump while 52 per cent viewed him unfavourably. His favourability was down slightly from 48 per cent in July, but still makes him more popular than he was in 2016 or 2020, the New York Times/Siena College poll found.
That’s despite the fact that 70 per cent of voters and even 37 per cent of his supporters said he had uttered something they found offensive.
Ms Harris scored 45 per cent favourability while about half viewed her unfavourably, compared with 46 per cent to 49 per cent in July.
“Highest-rated pollster in the country and a large sample size, too,” election data guru Nate Silver wrote on X about the latest poll.
“Fortunately for Harris she has the debate this week and none of this will matter if she has a good night.”
Mr Silver later shared his updated average with the New York Times/Siena College poll included, finding Ms Harris’ lead was down to 2.5 points nationally.
Mr Silver’s 2024 election forecast gives Mr Trump higher odds of winning the electoral college relative to Ms Harris, though she is favoured to win the popular vote.
Republicans haven’t won the popular vote for president since 2004. Mr Trump had been roundly besting Mr Biden in popular vote polls before the incumbent dropped out on July 21.
Last week, historian Allan Lichtman, known for developing a model that has picked the winner of all but one presidential election since 1984, predicted Ms Harris was on track to win.
The Vice President had surged in the polls across the board after getting jolted to the top of the ticket and captured the lead over Mr Trump in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polling. She also gained ground in the battleground state polls, which still remain largely a toss-up.
The poll found Ms Harris narrowly ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and tied in Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
On the issues, voters trust Ms Harris more than Mr Trump on abortion (54 per cent to 49 per cent) and democracy (50 per cent to 45 per cent), but trust the 45th President more on the economy (55 per cent to 42 per cent) and immigration (53 per cent to 43 per cent), the New York Times/Siena College poll found.
Top issues for voters were the economy (21 per cent), abortion (14 per cent), immigration (12 per cent), inflation and the cost of living (7 per cent) as well as democracy (7 per cent).
Democrats enjoy a slight lead over Republicans on enthusiasm — 91 per cent to 85 per cent, per the poll.
Moreover, most of the poll respondents — 56 per cent — said they do not believe Ms Harris represents a change from the unpopular Biden administration. Just 25 per cent said Ms Harris represents major change and 15 per cent said she would be a minor change. That’s relative to 51 per cent who felt that Mr Trump represents major change, 10 per cent who indicated minor change and 35 per cent more of the same.
Cohn said the poll showed Mr Trump had “significant advantages” going into the election, notably his unwavering popularity and lead on issues that matter to voters.
In addition, Cohn said Mr Trump “occupies the centre”, with a near majority of voters saying he was “not too far” to the left or right on issues, compared to nearly half saying Ms Harris was too far to the left.
“This is one of Mr Trump’s overlooked advantages,” Cohn wrote.
“Yes, he’s outside of the political mainstream in many respects — he denied the result of the 2020 election. And yes, he does have conservative views on many issues, like immigration. But he’s also taken many positions that would have been likelier to be held by a Democrat than a Republican a decade ago, like opposition to cutting entitlements, support for a cooperative relationship with Russia or opposition to free trade.”
Mr Trump is also “seen as the change candidate in a nation that wants change”.
“While President Biden’s departure from the race lifted the spirits of many Democrats, the national mood still isn’t great,” Cohn wrote.
“An overwhelming majority of voters still say that the economy is poor and that the nation is heading in the wrong direction. And a clear majority — 61 per cent — of voters say they want the next president to bring a ‘major change’ from Mr Biden, compared with 34 per cent who want ‘minor change’ and 3 per cent who don’t want change.”
Political strategists including James Carville have said whomever can position themselves as the changemaker candidate is best positioned to emerge victorious. To that end, Mr Carville recently suggested in an op-ed that she needs to break from Mr Biden publicly on major policy.
Ms Harris still retains the advantage in the RCP aggregate of polling nationally, with a 1.4 percentage point edge over Mr Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
The New York Times/Siena College poll sampled 1695 voters from September 3-6 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Tuesday night’s ABC News debate in Philadelphia will mark the first time the two will have ever crossed paths in person, and has the potential to dramatically shake-up what appears to be a toss-up race for the presidency, with about eight weeks to go until November 5.
“It will take almost superhuman focus and discipline to deal with Donald Trump in a debate,” Harris supporter and current Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg told CNN.
The Harris campaign announced it would “barnstorm battleground states” after the debate, beginning in North Carolina, then Pennsylvania.
Mr Trump held a rally in Wisconsin on Saturday where he claimed that he is struggling against a “rogue regime” where Democrats “imported murderers, child predators and serial rapists from all over the planet”.
