Oscar on their minds

LOS ANGELES, California (CNN) -- At this year's Academy Awards ceremony, politics may be unavoidable.

One best picture nominee concerns a gay love affair between two ranch hands. Another is a tale, ripe with coincidence, about prejudice and perception.

Then there's the story of the news anchor who helped bring down a red-baiting senator, the film about an emotionally roiled Israeli team of assassins pursuing the Munich Olympic terrorists, and the picture about the great writer who sacrifices his soul and compromises ethics to write a triumphant work -- about two brutal real-life killers who must die in the end if, to his mind, his book is going to succeed.

These five films -- respectively, "Brokeback Mountain," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Munich" and "Capote" -- as well as nominees such as "The Constant Gardener" (pharmaceutical company chicanery in Africa), "Transamerica" (pre-op transsexual goes on a journey with a son) and "Syriana" (the intermingling of oil and politics) have prompted observers to wonder: What's going on in Hollywood, so often the land of spaceships, buddy comedies and damsel-in-distress thrillers?

Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger says he believes the films simply reflect the times.

"The last few years have been a very politically divisive and politically vibrant time in this country, and I think the film industry this year has really started reacting to that," Karger told CNN. (Watch bomb victims' families protest one film -- 2:30 ))

And then there's the host.

Stewart an outsider looking in
Jon Stewart, host of "The Daily Show," is hosting the Oscars for the first time. Stewart made his name mocking politics on Comedy Central's late-night "fake news" show, pointing out the absurdities of both parties through election campaigns, scandal and simple Washington inefficiency.

He's expected to be less Academy-adversarial than last year's host, Chris Rock (who earned zero points from Hollywood power brokers for his remarks about who is really a star and a skit showing what movies people really see).

Still, the decision has earned plenty of criticism -- and not just because Stewart's movie career has been practically nonexistent. After all, so was beloved five-time Oscar host Johnny Carson's.

"He's an outsider looking in at the system, which is always problematic with a show like that because it's the ultimate insiders show," Oscar show writer Bruce Vilanch told CNN.

Stewart, though, professes to be unfazed. He's bringing along several of his "Daily Show" writers to help him, and if it doesn't go well ... well, it's just bombing on a particularly large stage. And Stewart, a veteran stand-up comedian, has failed before.

"I bombed once so badly at Radio City Music Hall when they reopened and when I walked offstage Shirley Jones hugged me, the 'Partridge Family' mother," he told CNN's Larry King. "I walked offstage. I didn't even know her and she just did this, oh, and then I had to go and accept a hug from Shirley Jones."

It's just part of the risk of performing, he added.

"You never want to do badly, but you also don't want to paralyze yourself thinking about doing badly," Stewart told CNN. "Show business, you don't get into for the health plan. You get into it for the opportunities and the fun to try different stuff." (Watch Stewart talk to King about Sunday's gig -- 2:43)

Stewart's monologue may not even be the highlight of the show. Besides the opportunity for some pretty sharp-edged thank-you speeches, one nominee may opt for animal sounds.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, who's up for best actor for his performance as Truman Capote in "Capote," told David Letterman that he and some friends made a drunken deal when they were teenagers. If any of them ever won an Oscar, the winner would give their acceptance speech barking like a dog until being removed from the stage.

"Let's hope I don't have to get up there," Hoffman said.

Given the reputation of Oscar speeches, many viewers are likely hoping otherwise -- and Hoffman is considered the odds-on favorite to win the award.

Rumblings of upsets
Indeed, there are few wide-open Oscar races this year. "Brokeback Mountain" and its director, Ang Lee, have won almost every major award this season and are considered the favorites to win the golden man.

Reese Witherspoon, whose performance as June Carter Cash in "Walk the Line" earned raves, is considered this year's Julia Roberts: a popular, beloved actress who's finally going to get her due from the academy as best actress.

The versatile Hoffman was eerily accurate -- and yet sympathetic -- as Capote and also has won most every award in sight.

But Oscars aren't presented until the envelopes are opened, and there are rumblings of upsets. "Crash" has strong support for its willingness to address prejudice and is considered "Brokeback's" toughest best picture competition. (Its director and co-screenwriter, Paul Haggis, likely will win the original screenplay award.)

Heath Ledger's breakout performance as the conflicted Ennis Del Mar in "Brokeback" may earn best actor recognition. And the Weinstein Co., run by Oscar campaign masters -- and former Miramax heads -- Harvey and Bob Weinstein, has shrewdly marketed Felicity Huffman and her performance as a pre-op transsexual in "Transamerica" for best actress.

The George Clooney factor
There's also the George Clooney factor. The popular actor is a triple threat this year: nominated for writing and directing in best picture nominee "Good Night, and Good Luck" and giving a strong performance as a cynical CIA agent in "Syriana."

Clooney has made no secret of his liberal political beliefs -- indeed, those beliefs are one reason he decided to do "Good Night, and Good Luck," about CBS newsman Ed Murrow's challenge to Sen. Joe McCarthy.

Clooney cracked jokes about scandal-plagued lobbyist Jack Abramoff at the Golden Globes and has done interviews pointing out his disagreements with the Bush administration.

"Good Night" may go home empty-handed, but the academy, wanting to honor Clooney for something, may vote him best supporting actor for "Syriana" -- preventing Paul Giamatti, unfairly overlooked last year in "Sideways," from winning.

Some pundits believe Clooney and Giamatti will split the vote, allowing "Crash's" Matt Dillon to win.

Most of the nominees have something else in common besides a political bent: They're "small" movies, released by indies or the major studios' independent arms. In fact, critics of this year's Oscars have gleefully pointed out that none of the best picture nominees has come close to $100 million at the box office (a standard benchmark for a film's success) nor have they necessarily played well in the heartland. (Watch how Middle America feels cut off from Hollywood -- 2:50)

Without a blockbuster rooting interest -- such as "Titanic" or "Gladiator" -- there are questions as to whether this year's awards might be among the least watched ever.

But Stewart, who was brought in as much for his popularity among younger viewers as his comedic expertise, has a cheeky response to that as well.

"It's going to be the most controversial Oscars ever," he told King. "I would not be surprised if the whole country tunes in."

The 78th annual Academy Awards are scheduled for 8 p.m. ET Sunday on ABC.