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predictions for tonight's UFC 58: USA vs. Canada show. The comments and fight predictions are strictly opinions of the staff.
We'll start from the bottom and work our way to the main-event.
Tom Murphy vs. Icho Larenas.
Comments: I know absolutely nothing about these two. I guess I'll favor the American because Larenas took the fight on short notice.
Prediction: Tom Murphy via Decision.
Rob MacDonald vs. Jason Lambert
Comments: I only know MacDonald from the Ultimate Fighter 2 reality show. I know nothing about Lambert. Gonna have to learn towards MacDonald based strictly on the assumption that UFC would match him against someone they think he can beat because they seem to assume anyone who had 5 minutes of camera time on Spike TV one night is a big fighting star that they must force-feed down everyone's throat.
Prediction: Rob MacDonald via TKO or Decision.
Spencer Fisher vs. Sam Stout
Comments: Fisher is a tough veteran who in 20 fights has only gone to the decision once. Stout is a legit Canadian contender on an 8-fight win streak. I've only seen Stout once, his last fight in the TKO promotion, and the only stuff I've seen from Fisher were his two appearances on the Ultimate Fight Night cards. Don't know enough to try and predict how they match up, but from what little I do know, I'm going to go with Fisher even though he took the fight on very short notice.
Prediction: Spencer Fisher via TKO.
Yves Edwards vs. Mark Hominick
Comments: Finally the Lightweights are back! I guess I should have said that about the last fight, but come on, compared to the old UFC Lightweight division which used to be in my opinion the premeire division in the company at the time (maybe only rivaled by the Light Heavyweight division at the time). Yves is the real deal as everyone knows, but Hominick is no push over himself. Never the less, I have to go with Yves via thug-jitsu beatdown. Glad this fight isn't a prelim also. And the cheeseburger at the weigh-ins had my rolling, by the way.
Prediction: Yves Edwards via KO.
Nathan Marquardt vs. Joe Doerksen
Comments: This is the portion of the card where the fights get competitive. A lot of people have this as a close fight, I got it as a complete one sided blow-away. I guess not too many people know a whole lot about Marquardt other than his bore-fest with Salaverry at Ultimate Fight Night. I've been watching him via tapes and videos on the internet for a while and the dude is absolutely awesome. Doerksen is the real deal also, and can and probably will give him a tough time anywhere the fight goes, especially the ground. However I see Marquardt as a better version of Doerksen anywhere the fight takes place. It could go the distance depending on how much aggression Marquardt brings inside the 8-sided cage with him this time, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Prediction: Nathan Marquardt via TKO.
B.J. Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre
Comments: Holy sh*t here we go. Obviously this is the fight everyone is throwing down the loot for tonight. Franklin/Loiseau and Yves' return is added incentive, but this is the reason we're opening our wallets. From a business point of view, I hate this fight. It makes very little sense going forward and there's a thousand different routes they could have taken. But from what I hear it was Penn who really pushed for this fight, almost demanding it, so I guess that's why it's going down. But forget all that. It's booked and I'm excited. As a fan, this is one of the best fights you can put together right now. I'm going with St. Pierre, as many fans are, but all the fighters and the majority of the "insider experts" are overwhelmingly choosing Penn. I clearly see that point of view. Look at GSP vs. Jason Miller or the Karo Parisyan fight. Penn is going to bring more than that to the table, and those guys gave GSP enough trouble that he went the distance with them and even found himself in some bad positions at times that those guys failed to capitalize on. We all know if Penn gets any opportunities, he's going for them full-throttle. On the feet, people seem to think it's equal. Wrong. Georges St. Pierre will out work Penn on his feet and if he doesn't want to go to the ground, it's pretty likely he won't have to. Hughes, Sherk, Trigg, these world-class wrestlers had their problems with GSP's wrestling and while Penn's takedowns come from a completely different approach than the standard double leg, I still don't think Penn can get him down. If the fight goes to the ground, which you have to think it will at some point, GSP will be on top. That's not guaranteed to be a good thing either, as Penn can finish you from his back as quick as he can if he was on top. I don't see GSP running over Penn like he did Trigg and Sherk (why did UFC not show the Sherk fight on the UFC 58 countdown show on Spike TV, by the way?) but I do see him winning this fight. Penn could very well pull out a submission, if Hughes can armbar him then we know Penn can if he is good enough to get the fight where he needs it to be to do so. I just don't see it happening though. I'm so completely sold on GSP and so completely on his bandwagon I really doubt I'd pick anyone over him right now. I've got him winning this one, and beating Hughes in the rematch for the belt. No matter how this one turns out, we should be able to guarantee excitement from start to finish.
Prediction: Georges St. Pierre via Decision.
Mike Swick vs. Steve Vigneault
Comments: This one on paper seems to be a spoon-fed victory for Swick. Probably a fight the UFC hopes will result in another quick finish for Swick, continuing the gimmick that he's a quick-finisher. Vigneault is the real deal, but still overmatched. His biggest name opponents are David Loiseau, Patrick Cote, and Chris Fontaine, all fights in which he lost via KO or TKO. Swick hasn't really beaten "great" competition just yet, his biggest name fight was against Chris Leben and he lost that one by knockout. He's looked awesome since entering the UFC however, and should continue that trend tonight. I would say after this fight it's time to step up the quality of his opposition.
Prediction: Mike Swick via KO.
Rich Franklin (c) vs. David Loiseau (UFC MW Title)
Comments: I don't know how anyone can pick against Franklin after that special on Spike TV with his training sessions being shown. That guy is an absolute freak of nature. Loiseau has two submission losses, one early in his career and another a quick guillotine choke loss to Jeremy Horn. Neither really say anything because Horn can submit anyone, and I'm sure Loiseau was more of a striker still sharpening his all around fighting skills when he lost his first MMA fight by submission. Knowing this most people think Franklin should get Loiseau off his feet and submit him on the ground. It's not that easy. Loiseau has had Joe Doerksen, Evan Tanner, Charles McCarthy, and other guys with good submissions playing around with his back and all other kinds of terrible positions to be on the ground. Loiseau stays very composed, defends very well, and always finds a way out. Another factor that's obvious and needs to be pointed out is Loiseau's elbows. At any point in the fight, two seconds into round one, three seconds remaining in round five, at any point in this fight David Loiseau can stop Rich Franklin with one elbow shot. Loiseau has cut people open left and right with those elbows, throws them viciously and accurately and has ended a lot of his fights that way. On the feet you have to think it's pretty close. Lyoto knocked out Franklin a few pounds ago and Tanner was able to drop him. So I guess like Fedor getting rocked by Fujita ages ago, people are always going to assume that someone is going to eventually connect with Franklin's chin and knock him out. Is Loiseau that guy? Well, if he isn't, Franklin looks to have a nice run as champion ahead of him because I don't really think UFC has too many more guys that can give Franklin as tough a fight as I expect Loiseau to give him. I've got friends who see Loiseau a lot that try and sell me on him, claiming he's about to be what Georges St. Pierre is in the Welterweight division, at 185 lbs. I'm not sold quite yet. Common opponents at 185 lbs., Evan Tanner and Jorge Rivera. Both guys fights with Rivera were pretty similar. Back and forth struggles with someone showing superiority by the end of the fight. Tanner fights were different in what happened before the stoppages, but they both stopped him due to cuts and other facial damage. So even the Fighter A beat Fighter B blah blah blah theory for this one, if that's how you judge a fight, makes this one seem close. I hope if it's stopped by a cut, the fight had gone on enough before it to show who the better man is.
Prediction: Rich Franklin via TKO or Submission.
