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The Chancellor's prediction on when the UK economy could start to recover may be "optimistic", a director of the International Monetary Fund has said.

In his Pre-Budget Report in November, Alistair Darling said output in Britain would continue to fall for the first two quarters of 2009. But he said after that he expected it to start to recover.

However, Barry Potter, a director of the International Monetary Fund, cast doubt on that. Speaking about the Chancellor's forecast on BBC Radio Scotland's The Business programme, Mr Potter said: "That would be towards the more optimistic end of the projections."

He added: "It's difficult to know exactly how long this will take, and it will depend on how effective the various policy measures that the UK has already taken will turn out to be."

And Mr Potter said the economic slowdown would be "a particularly sharp problem for the UK Government to handle in the next year or so".

But, speaking on the same programme, Mr Darling said the prediction that the economy would start to recover in the third quarter was based on the "best evidence" the Treasury had. And he said: "If you look at what I forecast at the end of November, it was broadly in line with what the Bank of England was also forecasting."

Mr Darling accepted that 2009 would be "difficult", adding: "I'm pretty clear that we will move into recession."

But he said: "The question is what do you then do about it? That's why it's so important that not just ourselves but governments across the world act together."

He continued: "This year will be difficult but I am confident that, if we and other countries act together, and if we can deal with the problems in relation with the banks, there is every reason to believe we can be confident about coming through this.

"The thing that will influence what happens this year is firstly what do countries acting together do to boost their economies. The other key thing so far as the UK is concerned is what can we do to ensure banks start lending not just to each other but to businesses and people."

-Nova

Gordon Brown has called for an immediate ceasefire to halt the violence in Gaza.

The Prime Minister said the ongoing hostilities were a matter of "grave concern" and insisted that international pressure was being placed on both Israel and Hamas.

On Saturday night thousands of Israeli troops poured over the border into Gaza, beginning a long-awaited ground offensive after a week of intense aerial bombardment.

Palls of thick black smoke billowed over Gaza City at first light on Sunday as the streets echoed to the rattling sound of machine gun fire.

Mr Brown said it was vital that the international community including the Arab League worked together to find a workable solution to the problem.

He said: "This is a very dangerous moment, I think everybody around the world is expressing grave concern. What we've got to do almost immediately is to work harder than we've done for an immediate ceasefire."

More than 400 Gazans have been killed and some 1,700 have been wounded since Israel began its aerial campaign, Gaza health officials said. The UN said the death toll in Gaza included more than 60 civilians, 34 of them children.

Three Israeli civilians and one soldier have also died in rocket attacks which have reached deeper into Israel than ever before, bringing one eighth of Israel's population within rocket range. The offensive was launched after more than a week of Palestinian rocket fire that followed a six-month truce.

The Prime Minister said assurances needed to be given to both the Israelis and Hamas.

He explained: "I can see the Gaza issues for the Palestinians - that they need humanitarian aid - but the Israelis must have some assurance that there are no rocket attacks coming into Israel. So first we need an immediate ceasefire, and that includes a stopping of the rockets into Israel. Secondly, we need some resolution of the problem over arms trafficking into Gaza and, thirdly, we need the borders and the crossings open and that will need some international solution."

-Nova

A 12-year-old boy has been found guilty in the United States of murdering his mother following a row over his household chores.

A judge in Arizona ruled prosecutors had proved the boy acted intentionally when he shot his mother, Sara Madrid, eight times last year.

The boy, from the city of Douglas in Cochise County, was found guilty of premeditated murder.

He has not been identified because he was charged as a juvenile.

He is due to be sentenced on 23 January.

The hearing took place in Cochise County Superior Court in the southern Arizona town of Bisbee.

According to prosecutors, the shooting happened after the boy had argued with his mother over chores.

He got a pistol from a bedroom cupboard and shot Sara Madrid repeatedly.

Abuse claims

Her live-in boyfriend of 10 years, Alfonso Munoz, saw what happened and he says the boy gave him the empty gun afterwards.

Mr Munoz, who helped raise the boy, said he had taught him how to use the weapon for emergencies and self-defence.

The boy's lawyer argued the child did not intend to kill his mother, but only wanted to get back at her for abusing him.

Police said the boy told them his mother yelled at him and slapped him.

Prosecutors wanted the child tried as an adult, but the judge ruled the case should remain in juvenile court after a psychologist and psychiatrist testified that he suffered physical and verbal abuse from his mother and could be rehabilitated in the juvenile justice system.

Under Arizona law, the boy can be held only until he turns 18 years of age.

-BBC News

The collapse of historic crystal and china maker Waterford Wedgwood has placed 2,700 jobs at risk in the UK and Ireland on another day of gloom for retailers across the high street.

The latest failure came as the axe fell on 850 staff at failed childrenswear chain Adams after administrators announced the closure of 111 stores.

Manchester-based retailer Passion for Perfume also joined the list of high street casualties in administration after cutting nearly 200 jobs.

And former high street giant Woolworths will shut its doors for the final time on Tuesday with the closure of its remaining 200 stores in a collapse which is set to leave 27,000 staff out of work.

Administrators Deloitte are hunting for a buyer for Waterford Wedgwood, best known for Wedgwood pottery, Royal Doulton and Waterford crystal.

Waterford - which collapsed after talks over a possible sale to a US private equity firm failed and lenders withdrew support - will continue to trade as a going concern.

Chief executive David Sculley said he is "optimistic" a buyer can be found but question marks now hang over the future of its 1,900 UK retailing and manufacturing staff, including 600 at its manufacturing base in Barlaston, Stoke-on-Trent. The Irish arm has around 800 staff based in Waterford.

Adams administrator PricewaterhouseCoopers - appointed on New Year's Eve - said the 194 job losses were "inevitable" as stores were closed at locations including Glasgow, Leeds, Blackpool, Coventry, Bolton and Wigan.

The remaining 160 Adams stores will stay open while efforts are made to secure a sale. Adams continues to employ 2,350 staff, and PwC said it was "hopeful" of being able to sell some parts of the business.

Deloitte said Passion for Perfume made 185 store staff and nine at the Manchester head office redundant on New Year's Eve. The firm traded online and from 45 stores across the UK at locations including Aberdeen, Plymouth, Blackpool and Wigan.

-Nova

Israel has ignored ceasefire calls from world leaders including Gordon Brown and continued its military offensive in Gaza amid fears of a humanitarian disaster in the Hamas-run territory.

At least 10 Palestinian children were killed in the 10th day of action by Israel designed to end Palestinian rocket and mortar attacks from sites in Gaza.

And the Islamic militant group continued to attack southern Israel with more than two dozen rockets - and vowed to wait for Israeli soldiers "in every street and every alleyway".

There appeared little prospect of either side heeding the Prime Minister's call to agree an "immediate truce" in talks with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has arrived in the region.

Mr Brown said the international community, including the Arab League, must worked together to find a workable solution.

He warned: "This is a very dangerous moment, I think everybody around the world is expressing grave concern. What we've got to do almost immediately is to work harder than we've done for an immediate ceasefire."

Fears of a humanitarian disaster are growing and aid agencies warned that people in the region are facing "grave" shortages of food and water.

A spokesman for Save The Children said basic humanitarian supplies are running out and much of Gaza city has been left without electricity and water.

The agency called for aid to be allowed in to the stricken area and said that 50,000 children were already suffering from chronic malnutrition.

More than 2,000 families were displaced prior to the launch of the ground offensive on Saturday with charities expecting the number to increase significantly as fighting escalates.

-Nova

A woman driver has been killed after desperately trying to reverse her car out of the path of a train, police said.

The 30-year-old was driving across an icy level-crossing in South Drove, near Spalding, Lincolnshire, when her car clipped a Ford Transit van heading in the opposite direction.

Lincolnshire Police said the crash left the woman, who is from Spalding, stranded on the remote level-crossing as the barriers came down.

Moments later, the 8.33am Peterborough to Lincoln service struck the grey Rover 216, with the unnamed woman still at the wheel, desperately trying to drive her car to safety.

Sergeant Dave Kay said at the scene: "She was making frantic attempts to get off the level-crossing but witnesses said it was very, very quick from when the barriers came down to the collision.

"She was trying to get her car off the level-crossing but because of the arctic conditions it was like a skating rink and she couldn't get very far."

Police said the accident involved a train operated by East Midlands Trains.

The van's driver managed to steer his vehicle off the crossing at West Road following the initial accident. He, along with one of his passengers, then tried to reach the woman before she was killed.

A spokeswoman for East Midlands Trains said none of the train's 18 passengers were hurt but that it was 11am before an engineer allowed the train to make the short journey to Spalding station.

From Spalding, passengers were taken to Lincoln by bus. Network Rail said the train was not derailed and was only slightly damaged. It added that trains were terminating at Sleaford in Lincolnshire while the incident was being investigated.

-Nova

People in Gaza are rapidly running out of food, fuel and medicine because of the Israeli military's restrictions on emergency supplies, aid agencies have warned.

Save the Children called the situation a "catastrophe" as world leaders made fresh efforts to end the violence that is reported to have claimed the lives of around 200 Palestinian civilians.

The Israeli military said on Monday it would allow 80 lorries of humanitarian aid and vital fuel supplies into the Gaza Strip - but Oxfam warned this was "not enough at all".

Medical aid agency Medecins Sans Frontieres said surgical services in Gaza were "overwhelmed" by the number of people wounded in the attacks.

It is now nine days since Israel launched a military blitz on Hamas, the Islamic group that controls Gaza, but the chances of an immediate ceasefire look remote.

After a week of air strikes, Israel launched a ground offensive on Saturday, sending hundreds of troops over the border and cutting Gaza in half.

Israeli defence minister Ehud Barak said today that the offensive would continue until the Jewish state achieved its objectives, principally an end to Palestinian rocket attacks on southern Israel.

Save the Children staff in Gaza braved the fighting to to deliver emergency aid packages to 6,000 people on Sunday.

But the charity said its stocks were now all but gone and the Israeli military was not allowing it to send in more supplies.

Speaking from Jerusalem, Save the Children spokesman Dominic Nutt said: "We now have no supplies or very few supplies left. We can't replenish our stocks - the pipeline has been cut. You're looking at a catastrophe. It is hard to know how you would define a humanitarian disaster if this is not considered to be one."

-Nova

David Cameron has stepped up the political battle over the economy by offering tax breaks worth a total of £5 billion in the next financial year to millions of pensioners and savers.

The Conservative leader said basic rate taxpayers could benefit by as much as £7,200 from his party's plans to end income tax on their savings, while pensioners would gain up to £400 from a £2,000 increase in their allowances.

But Labour said Mr Cameron's plan, funded by restricting the growth of public spending, was "economic madness" and would not benefit the vast majority of ordinary people who can already save up to £3,600 a year in tax-free ISAs.

And TUC general secretary Brendan Barber said the Tory proposals would mostly benefit "big banks, the super-rich and tax avoiders" and "add to the dole queues as a result of proposed cuts in public spending".

Mr Cameron said the Government could introduce the changes in its spring Budget, covering the estimated £5 billion cost by cutting back on state spending in 2009/10. The Tory leader said the proposals formed part of the vision for a "good future" for Britain which his party will put forward at the next general election.

Mr Cameron also launched Conservative reports on measures to build the UK's 5% share in the growing market for environmentally-friendly technology, which he said provided "a road map of how Britain can be the world leader in green goods, services and companies".

He said that a Conservative government would do everything possible to ensure that the majority of the population has access to high-speed broadband links within five years, with universal access in a decade.

In a speech on the economy in London, Mr Cameron denounced the Government's response to the downturn as "economically stupid and morally indefensible" because it encouraged debt and undermined saving.

He claimed the measures to encourage saving could be achieved without affecting spending plans for the NHS, schools, defence or international development by restricting other Whitehall departments to a 1% real-terms increase.

They would encourage the "really big change" required to transform Britain "from a spend, spend, spend society into a save, save, save society", he said.

-Nova

A "shocking new trend" in sex bullying has been revealed as figures showed more than 3,000 children were suspended from school for sexual misconduct.

Around 3,500 pupils in England were given fixed-term exclusions from school for sexual misconduct in the academic year 2006/07 - including 260 in primary schools, statistics from the Department for Children, Schools and Families have shown.

The figures are featured in a BBC1 Panorama programme which also quotes the findings of a survey of 11 to 19-year-olds by the charity Young Voice, showing one in 10 had been forced against their will to take part in sex acts.

Sexual misconduct can cover a range of behaviours from a one-off incident of daubing sexually-explicit graffiti on a wall to name-calling, inappropriate touching and serious sexual attacks.

Groping and the use of sexually-abusive nicknames have become almost part of daily life for some pupils, according to the Panorama programme.

Writing in the Daily Mail, presenter Jeremy Vine said he gathered a group of a dozen mothers and fathers in a bar to talk about sexual bullying.

Richard Piggin, from the charity Beatbullying, said sexual bullying was "relatively common" and a serious problem.

"We are looking at sexual misconduct, name-calling and also inappropriate touching, and young people being forced into sexual activity that they are not really comfortable with," he told BBC Breakfast. There is a significant number of young people that we have worked with who have told us that they have either experienced it, or have witnessed it in their schools or in their community."

The Panorama programme comes after Children's Secretary Ed Balls asked the Anti Bullying Alliance to draw up guidance for teachers on tackling sexual bullying.

The guidance will tackle inappropriate language, advise teachers on how to manage cases of harassment, and encourage healthy friendships between teenage boys and girls amid concerns of misogynistic attitudes linked to gang culture.

-Nova

Detectives have launched a murder inquiry after a 60-year-old woman was found stabbed to death in her home.

Officers discovered the pensioner's body after they were called to a flat in Camberwell, south east London.

They believe the victim, who has not been formally identified, knew her attacker.

A Metropolitan Police spokesman said no arrests have been made.

He said: "Detectives are investigating the murder of a 60-year-old woman found stabbed at her south London home.

"Police were called at around 6.30pm on Sunday to attend a flat in Kenbury Gardens, Camberwell, where they discovered the woman's body.

"She was pronounced dead at the scene. A post-mortem is due to be held at Greenwich Mortuary.

"The woman has not been formally identified and officers are in the process of ensuring all next of kin are aware."

Detective Chief Inspector Will O'Reilly, of Homicide and Serious Crime Command, is leading the investigation.

Anyone with information about the death can call the incident room on 020 8721 4905 or Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.

-Nova